A Pioneer Goes West

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The article below written by Ron Rapp of Rapp.org is well written for aviation legacy; Arnold Palmer. Give it a read for some perspective on Arnold and the band of brothers in the aviation business.

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by Ron Rapp on November 1, 2016 in Aviation

There are many big names in the general aviation world: King, Collins, Klapmeier, Poberezny, and so on. But Arnold Palmer was something unique, even among the giants in our industry. I think his achievements in the air may have matched anything he accomplished on the golf course.
Think that’s crazy? Let’s look at the evidence.
Everyone knows the highlights of Palmer’s sports career, but how many aviators do you know who soloed in six hours? That’s not a typo. I’m fairly certain I was still trying to figure out how to start the engine properly at the six hour mark (some might argue that I’m still working on it 8,000 hours later… but that’s a topic for another time). If my CFI had tried to cut me loose at that point – not that there was any danger of this actually happening, mind you — I would have been the one pulling on his shirt tail as I hauled him back into the cockpit. What’s the old saying? “A man’s got to know his limitations”. Read More.

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Source: http://www.rapp.org/archives/2016/11/a-pioneer-goes-west/

Michael Zaporzan

Demand for Pilots Expected to Soar

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Demand for Pilots Expected to Soar by Michael Zaporzan

Air travel has become more popular and prevalent than ever before. To keep up with increasing demand from the public, airlines will be expanding their fleets and flight offerings which means the need for key staff, especially trained pilots, is going to skyrocket.

Boeing alone is planning on adding 39,620 aircrafts to their global fleet by 2035, an initiative valued at $5.9 trillion. According to a forecast by Boeing Co., this will require recruiting some 617,000 pilots, or 30,850 pilots a year for the next two decades, to keep pace with these new planes on order.

On top of that, carriers will be working against the clock as they struggle to replace pilots entering retirement, staff up to comply with stricter federal limits on duty hours, and fulfill staff needs for new routes to Cuba and Latin America.

Boeing predicts there will be the need for 1,12,000 new pilots in North America over the next 20 years. Furthermore, they see some 1,04,000 aviators required for Europe as travel continues to grow between countries on the continent.

As China overtakes North American as the largest travel market, the Asia-Pacific region is expected to account for about 40% of total new hires. And the Middle East is forecasted to need 58,000 pilots over the two decades, about 2,000 fewer than Boeing forecast a year ago. Flying within the Middle East region is changing as countries shift away from very large aircraft likeAirbus’s A380 superjumbo towards smaller models.

The life of a pilot isn’t easy, but if you’re already in the field or looking to get into it in the coming years, it’s an especially good time for the industry.

Can we keep drones off private property?

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Can we keep drones off private property- by Michael Zaporzan

According to the Federal Aviation Administration, drone sales are expected to increase from 2.5 million this year to a whopping 7 million by the year 2020. Although these sales may be fantastic news for drone makers, it also means there will soon be a need to create laws regarding drones flying over people’s private property. Should it be legal for drones to fly over your property without your consent? Should they have a certain distance limit from which they cannot fly close to people’s homes? Would there be a difference in privileges between commercial drones and drones used for casual purposes? Who should make these decisions: individual landowners or organizations like the Federal Aviation Administration? As usual, these kind of legalities have resulted in different camps of thought.

There are those like University of Miami law professor A. Michael Froomkin who believe people’s privacy is in fact at risk due to drones. According to Froomkin, drones shouldn’t be given the legal right to fly over private property without first acquiring each of the landowner’s consent. Because drones can film, record sounds, and listen in on Wi-Fi and other signals, flying them over private property is a clear violation of the Fourth Amendment rights regarding privacy and safety. He explains that just as homeowners have a horizontal curtilage, where property rights include grounds and buildings in the immediate vicinity of the homeowner’s land, property owners should also have a vertical curtilage. Nowadays, according to the FAA navigable airspace usually ends at 500 feet of the private property. According to Froomkin, the same should be applied to drones.

Then there are those like University of Washington assistant professor of law Ryan Calo who believe that decisions regarding where and when drones can fly should be made collectively, not by individual landowners. According to Calo, drones are the next frontier of aviation and, just like airplanes, should answer to the FAA’s navigable airspace regulations, not to property owners. Unlike Froomkin, Calo sees drones as an essential commercial tool. Companies, like Amazon, plan to use them and revolutionize the way they deliver their products. Journalists want to use them to cover breaking news faster. The health industry wants to use them to deliver emergency medication or even organs for transplant surgeries quicker. The possibilities are endless, hence placing regulations at the disposal of individuals’ hands could truly hinder the drones’ potential. Calo goes even further, explaining that attempting to get approval from each property owner to obtain a permit would be inefficient to the point of being impossible. Even apps like AirMap simply don’t have enough time or resources to fully complete such endeavors.

The drone verdict is still out, but suffice to say that government and industry leaders are already being faced with the legal implications of these decisions, and a crowded drone airspace is just around the corner. Considering that companies like Amazon and Google are already meeting with National Aeronautics and Space Administration to design an air-traffic-control system for drones, it seems like Calo may win this argument, after all.

Bulls and Bears

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Since the credit crunch, it has become a tradition for people in business aviation to be optimistic at the start of the year. And then for that optimism to quietly evaporate as the year goes on.

At the start of 2016, there are few bulls around. The first few weeks have seen volatile stock markets, political stand-offs and terrorism. The last year also turned out to be extremely tough year for many. There is a lot of pressure on the US to carry the rest of the business jet market. This is not realistic. Many smaller business jets are bought by small and medium sized US companies and used as genuine business tools. But US small business confidence – which we think is a good guide to the strength of demand for smaller aircraft – has still not returned. The NFIB optimism index has still not returned to its 42-year average of 98.

This (and the rise of large jet buyers outside the US) is one reason the market bifurcated.

Many small US companies stopped buying jets because they were worried. Some that were more confident could not get credit. Worryingly, finance for this group could get harder as Basel III banking regulations penalise banks for lending to weaker credits. (Honda’s ability to offer aircraft finance could turn out to be a big advantage).  Things are not looking great for larger US corporates either.

Michael ZaporzanUS corporates have had record earnings since 2009 but much of this has come from cost cutting. Earning margins for the S&P 500X (which excludes oil companies) margins are at 30 year highs. Even more worrying, revenue growth has fallen sharply. A significant fall in revenue growth usually signals a recession.

If you want cheering up, there are some reasons to be more optimistic in the long term.

Committed users of jets will want replacements, new models can stimulate demand and – most excitedly – there are many companies looking to change the market through new membership models (Wheels Up), new online platforms aiming to get people flying (JetSmarter, PrivateFly, StrataJet, Stellar, Victor et al) and in other ways (this is a big focus of our London conference in two weeks time). The more people that try business aviation the better for the industry.

I am bearish about the next 12 months but bullish about the long term future of business aviation.